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Top economist David Rosenberg warns of a possible "deflationary shock" in the United States—where prices not only grow more slowly but actually decline. Key contributors include tariff-driven dampening of consumer demand, reduced immigration (dampening spending), and demographic shifts as an aging population saves more and spends less. 

Despite upbeat headlines—job growth, stable inflation, surging stock markets—a deeper fragility persists. Employment gains are mostly in low-productivity sectors, private hiring is weakening, and housing affordability is being squeezed by rising mortgage rates. Tech stocks buoy market indices, obscuring real weaknesses.

European manufacturing rebounded in August, with the Eurozone’s PMI rising above 50 for the first time in three years. Strong domestic demand in southern Europe, particularly Spain and Greece, offset weakness in Germany. The recovery signals resilience despite U.S. tariffs and global uncertainty, offering cautious optimism for sustained industrial growth.

This supremacy has granted the United States what former French president Valéry Giscard d’Estaing famously called an “exorbitant privilege”: the ability to borrow cheaply, finance persistent deficits, and project geopolitical influence through monetary channels.
But the global environment is shifting. The geopolitical rivalries of the 21st century — the rise of China, sanctions against Russia, tensions in the Middle East, and the increasing assertiveness of the Global South — have accelerated efforts to reduce dependency on the dollar. The BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, now expanded to include new members such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Iran) is at the heart of this movement.